Образец анализа фондовых рынков на неделю

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ОБРАЗЕЦ АНАЛИЗА ФОНДОВЫХ РЫНКОВ НА НЕДЕЛЮ

Рэймонд Мэрриман: Анализ фондовых рынков на неделю

MMA WEEKLY COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

FOR STOCK INDICES THE WEEK OF MARCH 9, 2009

DJIA Cash: Last week’s close was below weekly support again, which is bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 8th time in 9 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 7128 will upgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is . A close below 6332 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is . A close above 6967 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A new bearish crossover zone just formed at . Others remain in effect at 9671-10,045, 10,739-10,825, 12,094-12,161, 12,432-12,496, 12,817-12,856, 13,088-13,254, and 13,825-13,969.

This starts the 16th week of the 13-21 week primary cycle, off the 7449 low of November 21. We are in the time band when the primary cycle trough is due, normally anytime in the next 5 weeks. This could also be labeled the 5th week of the third 5-7 week major cycle phase, which would mean the bottom could be completed within the next three weeks. It is also very possible this primary bottom will coincide with at least a 50-week cycle trough too. That means that once this bottom is in, the DJIA could have a powerful rally lasting at least 8 weeks and maybe even several months if this is also the 4-year cycle trough.

Last week’s report stated, “Cycles point to a possible bottom anytime in the next six weeks, and geocosmics indicate it could even be this week or the following week. Venus turns retrograde March 6, and within 12 trading days, there is a 78% probability of a primary or greater cycle being completed. The transit of Mars hits the NYSE chart very hard on Friday, March 6, and that is usually the end of severe decline. On March 10 there is a full moon which hits the Saturn-Uranus opposition. That can coincide with either a bottom, or the start of another serious sell off, while the Sun is in “translation” to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto evolving T-square (March 8-23). The point is the low could be later this week or early the next (my first choice), or it could be followed by serious “panic selling” even the following 1-2 weeks… Price-wise, we are on target for our preferred price target zone of . But if panic selling is present, it could even go lower. Bottom line is that we are now entering a period where panic selling could occur (March 4-23), but it is also possible that a bottom could be forming right here too (March 6 especially, but watch March 4-12).”

Well, the market fell right to the lower channel line on Friday, March 6, at 6470, and then started a late session rally to close back up to 6626. Since that low was right on the Venus retrograde date as well as the Mars transit in hard aspect to the NYSE chart, we have to consider this low as a potential primary cycle trough. But the wave structure suggests that it may only be a temporary low, as only three waves down can be counted off the primary cycle crest of 9088 on January 6. If this is correct, then a rally off Friday’s low would probably only be corrective in form, not to exceed the 9088 high of January. One thing we will want to watch carefully is if the market can close above the 25-day moving average, currently at 7508 and falling about 60 points/day. If it does, it implies this is a new primary cycle. A weekly close above the new bearish crossover zone would also be promising. Otherwise traders still need to be alert that this rally could end by Wednesday, below 7000, and followed by yet another decline to even lower lows, perhaps into the lunar reversal period of March 16-18, which has a high correlation to a low. If it can close above 7000, then I think it could rally for 4-7 weeks to the crest of a new primary cycle (wave 4), and above the 25-day moving average. But very short-term our concern is the full moon of March 10-11. Will that precipitate another crisis and sell off sharply into March 16-23? Or will it be benign, not taking out the low of last Friday by the end of this week? I don’t know the answer to that concern yet, but I am willing to probe the long side now with the idea that it could hold, for that would be a relatively low risk position to take, with great upside profit potential if it does hold.

Lunar cycles for this week are as follows. Anything above 120 means there is a higher than expected probability of a reversal from an isolated high or low:

March ## (not likely a trough at this time)

Mar 9#

Mar 12#

Mar 16* (more often a low)

Mar

Mar

Strategy: Last week we stated, “Traders may be short from last week’s report. But look to take profits and even look for signs to buy later this week, especially around Friday, March 6 +/- 2 days. This is still for aggressive traders only.” Aggressive traders who are long can set their stop-loss below weekly support or on a close under Friday’s low of 6470. You may want to exit and even look to sell short again before Wednesday, if the hourly and 30-minute charts are pointed to an overbought condition. If 6470 holds this week, and if the market can close above 6921 next Friday and in the top two-thirds of the week’s range, it will be a bullish sign. If it can close above the 25-day moving average, it may even mean the 50-week cycle has ended and the market will be up several weeks. But right now, this week’s full moon (March 10) on the Saturn-Uranus opposition leaves open the possibility of yet another sharp decline in the 1-3 weeks to complete the primary cycle trough. In any event, traders can be looking for signs of a primary bottom to buy, anytime in the next three weeks. We got some of those signs on Friday, but no confirmation as of yet. But then, we never get conformation until we are well off those lows, and I think right now is favorable risk-reward ratio for traders to probe the long side (i. e. risk 200 points for a possible return of 1000+ points).

SPM (June S&P): Last week’s close was below weekly support again, which is bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 8th time in 9 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 738.60 will upgrade it to neutral again. Weekly support is 658.50-660.90. A close below 658.50 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 717.10-719.50. A close above 719.50 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A new bearish crossover zone just formed in June at 713.45-716. Others remain in effect in June at 789.45-791.95 and in March at 1012.75-1074.45, 1156.15-1180, 1384.80-1388.55, 1456.15-1473.80, and 1540.35-1559.60 in the nearby contract. June is about three points lower than March (what does that tell you?).

This will also start the 16th week of a 15-23 week primary cycle. It also starts the 7th week of the second 8-12 week half-primary cycle. Ideally the low will now be in 1-5 weeks, if indeed this index is exhibiting a two-phase pattern for the primary cycle (I think it is). But, as stated last week, “However, there are powerful geocosmic signatures in effect this coming week (March 6 +/- 2 trading days) that can coincide with a cycle trough, so traders must now be very alert for a sudden change in trend that could happen almost any day now in the next couple of weeks.” March 6 did indeed witness a new multi-year low ion this index, as the March contract fell to 665.70. This is a significant price area, for the “downside measuring gap” price target off the gap down of the week starting February 16 was 665.20 +/- 32.70. You would have to consider the low of Friday at 665.70 an almost exact direct hit.

If Friday’s low was a primary cycle trough, then prices should rally at least 2-5 weeks and close above the 25-day moving average, before taking out Friday’s low (663.30 on June). If it is even a greater cycle, like the 50-week, it should close above the “gap down” of February 9-16 weeks at 797-804.80. However, as with the DJIA, the wave structure does not demonstrate a 5-wave completion yet. Friday’s low may have been wave 3 off the primary cycle crest of January 66, which allows for one more new low before the wave structure is completed. Our concern from a geocosmic studies point of view is whether wave 3 is even completed. If it is, a wave 4 rally could last for several weeks, maybe even into the Venus direct period of April 17. Maybe during that time prices do come back up the gap down area. The other alternative is that the low of last Friday is very temporary, and the rally ends before the full moon of Tuesday night (maybe Wednesday morning), followed by another sharp decline into the next 1-3 weeks to complete the primary cycle (and wave 3 down). This actually fits better with a classical cycle studies that says the second half-primary bottom should be another 1-5 weeks yet.

But there are reasons to think that Friday’s low might hold, in addition to the important geocosmic signatures that unfolded then. Another reason is the shape of the 15-day slow stochastics, which are forming this bullish double-looping pattern, below 20%, and is now starting to turn up. If K can get above 25% and widen its distance above D, it would be a great sign that a new primary cycle is in force. This week starts with K now at 10.41%, and it has turned above D at 7.15%. Two consecutive closes above the 25-day moving average would confirm this is a new primary cycle. That average is now at 778.55 and falling about 6 points/day.

Although it is too early to tell which pattern will unfold, my bias is more along the lines that a wave 3 ended Friday, and we could now start a wave 4 rally that could last 5-7 weeks. However, keep in mind that wave 3 may not have ended Friday, and if that is the case, we could see one more decline to complete it and the primary cycle in the next 1-3 weeks.

Strategy: Last week’s report stated, “Now traders are advised to look to cover and take profits on a low around March 6 +/- 2 trading days. Aggressive traders may even look to go long if it appears a low is forming then. More conservative traders need to wait for a close over 806 before incorporating bullish strategies.” Aggressive traders who are long may stay with this position as long as prices do not close under last week’s low of 663.30 or weekly support. You may look to take some profits by Tuesday however, if it appears the rally is weakening. Very aggressive traders may even look to sell short then, for there remains a possibility of one more sell off, especially into March 16-23, especially if last week’s low breaks. But if last week’s low doesn’t break, don’t hold onto short positions.

NDM (June NASDAQ): Last week’s close was below weekly support again, which is bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is downgraded to trend run down. A close above 1128.75 will upgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is . A close below 1046 is bearish. A trade below there followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is . A close above 1105 is bullish, while a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at in June, and , , and in March.

This starts the 16th week of a 15-23 week primary cycle here too. But unlike the SPH and DJIA, it is still holding above its 1041 low of November 21, for a possible case of intermarket bullish divergence to the DJIA. Last week’s low was 1042 – close, but not below. But still it didn’t close in the top third of the week’s range, so that is not yet confirmed. It is still possible that prices could go lower yet before March 23, and still have bullish intermarket divergence. As stated the past 2 weeks, “… there is also a possibility of panic setting in and driving these prices much lower too, since we have the translation of the Sun to Saturn-Uranus-Pluto coming up March 9-23, with the most explosive part around the full moon of March 10 (like September 15).” So this week is very important in all indices. If the full moon doesn’t resulting panic selling, we could be starting anew primary cycle that could last until within ten days of Venus turning direct, April 17. If it does break down, the decline could be severe, and last into March 16-23.

Last week also stated, “Daily stochastics are turning back down, suggesting we will see lower prices this week than last week. But as with the other indices, I think the March 4-12 period is fraught with danger of a large sell off. But then possibly a sudden reversal.” Well, we did sell off sharply into Friday March 6, and now stochastics are starting to turn up in bullish double looping pattern. This is positive if K can climb above 25% and widen its distance above D. Right now, K is at 13.41% and above d at 8.87%. I like it that prices made a new low Friday while these stochastics were rising. It’s promising. But we must also remember Venus is now retrograde and strange fake outs can happen, especially given the full moon of Tuesday-Wednesday that crosses the Saturn-Uranus opposition.

Strategy: Last week’s report stated, “Look to cover any short positions on a new low that could form March 4-12 (especially close to March 9-10). Until then, your stop-loss can be above 1185 or 1165, depending on risk allowance. But if a new low forms March 4-12, aggressive traders can look to get long.” OK. Traders should have taken profits Friday from the short side, and aggressive traders should now be long with a stop-loss under weekly support, ort a close below Friday’s low of 1045. You may even look to exit (or even go short) Monday-Tuesday if it appears this rally has no legs. But for now, I would give it the benefit of the doubt because it is a low risk, high reward situation as long as you adhere to the stop-loss risk management parameters just given.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.