Russian Federation Livestock and Products Semi-Annu al Report 2008 (стр. 3 )

PSD Table
Country	Russian Federation
Commodity	Animal Numbers. Swine					(1000 HEAD)
	2006	Revised		2007	Estimate		2008	Forecast
	USDA Official	Post Estimate	Post Estimate New	USDA Official	Post Estimate	Post Estimate New	USDA Official	Post Estimate	Post Estimate New
Market Year Begin		01.2006	01.2006		01.2007	01.2007		01.2008	01.2008
Total Beginning Stocks	16550	16550	16550	17180	17610	17180	18580	18840	18210
Sow Beginning Stocks	3600	3600	3600	3750	3800	3750	3950	0	3975
Production (Pig Crop)	37000	37000	37000	38900	39300	39150	41500	0	41700
Intra-EU Imports	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other Imports	382	60	382	400	60	400	400	0	400
Total Imports	382	60	382	400	60	400	400	0	400
Total Supply	53932	53610	53932	56480	56970	56730	60480	18840	60310
Intra EU Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other Exports	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Total Exports	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Sow Slaughter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other Slaughter	32852	32500	32852	34100	34450	34670	36250	0	36910
Total Slaughter	32852	32500	32852	34100	34450	34670	36250	0	36910
Loss	3900	3499	3900	3800	3679	3850	3800	0	3800
Ending Inventories	17180	17610	17180	18580	18840	18210	20430	0	19600
Total Distribution	53932	53610	53932	56480	56970	56730	60480	0	60310
CY Imp. from U. S.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CY. Exp. to U. S.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-18840	0
Inventory Balance	630	1060	630	1400	1230	1030	1850	-18840	1390
Inventory Change	0	0	0	4	6	4	8	7	6
Sow Change	3	3	3	4	6	4	5	-100	6
Production Change	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	-100	7
Production to Sows	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.4	10.3	10.4	10.5	0	10.5
Trade Balance	-382	-59	-382	-400	-59	-400	-400	0	-400
Slaughter to Inventory	199	196	199	198	196	202	195	0	203

Not Official USDA Data

Consumption

Pork consumption is expected to grow 5 percent in 2008. Beef consumption is expected to remain flat but only if beef imports are allowed to grow to compensate for declining domestic production. The steady increase in pork and beef prices continues to dampen red meat consumption in Russia. Restrictions on red meat imports, such as tariff rate quotas (TRQ) and regular trade disruptions imposed by the Russian veterinary service, contribute to increasing prices and force consumers to look for alternative animal protein products such as poultry and fish.

Table *****ssia: Per Capita Consumption of Selected Food Products, in kilograms

Calendar Year	1990	1995	2000	2005	2006	Recommended Yearly Intake
Meat & meat products	78.0	55.0	45.0	55.0	58.0	81.0
Dairy products	386.0	253.0	215.0	235.0	239.0	392.0
Vegetable oil	10.2	7.4	9.9	12.2	12.6	13.0
Seafood	20.3	9.4	10.4	12.6	13.1	23.3

Source: Vladimir Kayshev, Head of Food Processing Industry Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Presentation at the Second Economic Forum. December 2007