Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования Факультет социальных наук Программа дисциплины «Глобальные демографические проблемы (Global Demographic Problems)» для направления 040100.68 «Социология» подготовки магистра для магистерской программы «Демография» Автор программы: , д. э.н., e-mail: akimovivran @mail. ru Одобрена на заседании кафедры демографии «___»_______ 20 г Зав. кафедрой Рекомендована профессиональной коллегией УМС «Социология» «___»____20 г Председатель Утверждена УС факультета «___»_______20 г. Москва, 2015 Настоящая программа не может быть использована другими подразделениями университета и другими вузами без разрешения кафедры-разработчика программы. |
This program outlines minimum requirements to knowledge and skills of students and describes content and types of study and reporting. The program is aimed to lecturer who teach this course and students of specialty 521200 Sociology specializing in Demography
The program is worked out in accordance with:
· The Study Program of the High School of Economics for magister program Demography
2 Targets of the course
2.1 The targets of the course Global Demographic Problems are to work out holistic understanding of the global demographic situation and at the same time understanding of regional and country specific features of demographic changes, social and economic consequences of population changes, long-term results of demographic, social and economic development, principal means of regulation of social and economic development in connection with demographic changes, and also training skills of group research work and presentation of research results.
3 Abilities of student to be formed during the course study
After studying the course, a student should be able:
· To analyze the state and changes of demographic processes of the world and modern world civilizations.
· To analyze long-term forecasts of the global development.
· To collect and analyze demographic and economic statistical data about country and regional development, to analyze methodologies of long-term world development, to prepare and present reports on above mentioned problems.
·
After studying the course, student should have the following abilities:
Ability | Study Program Code | Principal attributes of ability | Teaching technique that form an ability |
System ability | СК-М6 | A student is able to analyze, verify, and estimate the adequacy of information performing analytical work, and able to get necessary information by analytical means if necessary and is able to work in uncertain situation | Preparation of reports in the field of research |
System ability | СК-М1 | A student is able to estimate, analyze, and use technique and practices that are taught | Analysis of long-term forecasting technique at lectures and seminars |
Personal abulity | СЛК –М3 | A student is able to identify and describe targets of professional and social activity | Work in groups while preparing reports |
4 The course and the other disciplines
For students specializing in Demography this course is a free choice discipline.
This course is based on the following disciplines:
· Demographic History and Demographic Theory
To study this course a student should have the following knowledge and abilities: СК-М3 – be able to adopt to research technique, to shift from one to the other field of research or activity, СК-М6 – be able to analyze, verify, and estimate adequacy of information he or she uses in professional activity, be able to get necessary information by research, and work in uncertain situation.
5 Content of the course
[The content presents parts of the course and type of classes and their number]
[Table for a discipline taught on one chair]
№ | Part of the course | Total | Hours in class | Individual work | ||
lectures | Seminars | Practical work | ||||
1 | Demographic situation in developed and developing countries | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |
2 | Perspectives of the world population growth | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |
3 | Food and energy supply in the growing world | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | |
4 | Cultural and civilizational aspects of globalization | 18 | 2 | 6 | 12 | |
5 | Forecasts and regulation of long-term trends of social and economic development | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | |
Total | 106 | 10 | 26 | 72 |
6 Means of control
Type of control | Form of control | Tools | ||
1 | 2 | |||
Current | Presentation of report/Homework | * | A paper (12000-15000 characters) and its presentation in a seminar | |
Individual work | * | Intermediate test | ||
Final | Test | * | Oral test |
6.1 Criteria of tests
Preparing a report a student should do his/her own research (ИК 1.2и), be able to write texts (ИК 2.2), be able to make presentations of his/her reports (ИК 3.2.)
10 grade rating is used for current control.
At the final test, a student should be able to use methodology and language of other sciences (economics, ecology, political science). ИК М5.6.
7 Parts of the course
Part 1. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries of the world (8 academic hours)
1. Introduction into the course
2. Different trends in population development in the countries of the world.
3. Main features of demographic trends in developed countries and their consequences to social and economic development of these countries.
4. Population growth in developing countries and its influence on their social and economic development.
Part 2. Perspectives of the world population growth (8 academic hours)
1. UN population forecasts
2. Alternative world population forecasts.
3. Future changes in the structure of the world population
4. Long-term population dynamics and natural population decrease
Part 3. Limits to growth and survival of the global population (8 academic hours)
1. Modern economy and natural resources use
2. Power as the basis of industrial society
3. Food production as the principal means of survival
4. Global environmental pollution
5. Globalization and the world population survival
Part 4. Cultural and civilizational aspects of globalization (6 academic hours)
1. Catch-up development and human development in developing countries and transition economies.
2. Cultural aspects of globalization
3. Development goals of the UN Millennium Declaration
4. Personal identity as an affiliation with civilization in the modern society
5. Civilizations’ interaction under globalization
Part 5. Forecasts and regulation of long-term social and economic development (6 academic hours)
1. Operational description of demographic transition as a forecasting technique that connect social and economic and demographic development.
2. World population forecast in the XXI century by the main regions and countries
3. Changes in land and fresh water resources for growing population
4. Growing demand for fuel and energy resources.
5. Balance of energy and food demand and resources for growing population.
6. Changes of population size of modern world civilization.
7. Forecast scenarios of civilizations’ interaction as a result of population growth.
8. Principal strategies of the global development under population growth, natural resource exhaustion and interaction of civilizations
8 Teaching technique
Studying parts 1-3 students present their reports orally. Part 5 includes collective discussion of long-term forecast scenarios.
9 Tests for current control
9.1 Tasks for current control
Part 1. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries of the world (2 academic hours)
Questions for student at seminars (2 academic hours)
1. What grouping of countries are used in world economy and international studies analysis?
2. What are the principal differences in population reproduction trends in developed and developing countries?
3. What are social and economic consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries and transition economies?
4. What are social and economic consequences of population ageing in developed countries and transition economies?
5. Describe mechanism and trends in interaction of social and economic development and reproduction of population.
Part 2. Perspectives of the world population growth (2academic hours)
Questions for student at seminars (2 academic hours)
1. What are preconditions for UN Population Forecast?
2. How can we measure connection between social and economic development and demographic dynamics?
3. What are the principal variants of the world population growth in the XXI century?
4. Compare demographic, social and economic consequences of population growth and natural decline as a result of ageing.
5. What population forecast scenarios do you consider the most reliable and why?
Part 3. Limits to growth and survival of the global population (2 academic hours)
Questions for student at seminars (2 academic hours)
1. What kinds of economic activity are descried by macroeconomic indicators?
2. What kinds of economic activity can be classified as vital for population survival?
3. What does power bring to modern society?
4. What natural resources are available for agricultural production and where are they located?
5. What is the role of international trade in global population survival?
Part 4. Cultural and civilizational aspects of globalization (6 academic hours)
Questions for student at seminars (6 academic hours)
1. How human development is measured?
2. What is catch-up development?
3. What intercultural conflicts are coursed by globalization?
4. How the term civilization is dealt in modern social science and politics?
5. What is the role of civilizations in modern international relations?
Part 5. Forecasts and regulation of long-term social and economic development (4 academic hours)
Questions for student at seminars (4 academic hours)
1. What are the principal forecasted changes in proportion of the world population by parts of the world and continents, groups of states, and civilizations in the XXI century?
2. What are the forecasts of fuel and energy demand under the world population growth?
3. What are the forecasts of agricultural resources supply under the world population growth?
4. What are perspectives of natural resources availability for the world growing population?
5. What is production potential of fuel, energy, and agriculture for growing population?
6. What are the possible scenarios of inter-civilizational interaction under population growth, catch-up development, and globalization?
7. What are the ways of solving problems that result from the world population growth?
9.2 Control questions for final test
Questions for final test and self-control
1. What grouping of countries are used in world economy and international studies analysis?
2. What are the principal differences in population reproduction trends in developed and developing countries?
3. What are social and economic consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries and transition economies?
4. What are social and economic consequences of population ageing in developed countries and transition economies?
5. Describe mechanism and trends in interaction of social and economic development and reproduction of population.
6. What are preconditions for UN Population Forecast?
7. How can we measure connection between social and economic development and demographic dynamics?
8. What are the principal variants of the world population growth in the XXI century?
9. Compare demographic, social and economic consequences of population growth and natural decline as a result of ageing.
10. What population forecast scenarios do you consider the most reliable and why?
11. What kinds of economic activity are descried by macroeconomic indicators?
12. What kinds of economic activity can be classified as vital for population survival?
13. What does power bring to modern society?
14. What natural resources are available for agricultural production and where are they located?
15. What is the role of international trade in global population survival?
16. How human development is measured?
17. What is catch-up development?
18. What intercultural conflicts are coursed by globalization?
19. How the term civilization is dealt in modern social science and politics?
20. What is the role of civilizations in modern international relations?
21. What are possible scenarios of inter-civilizational interaction under population growth, catch-up development, and globalization?
22. What are the ways of solving problems that result from the world population growth?
23. What are the principal forecasted changes in proportion of the world population by parts of the world and continents, groups of states, and civilizations in the XXI century?
24. What are the forecasts of fuel and energy demand under the world population growth?
25. What are the forecasts of agricultural resources supply under the world population growth?
26. What is production potential of fuel, energy, and agriculture for growing population?
27. What are perspectives of natural resources availability for the world growing population?
28. What are the possible scenarios of inter-civilizational interaction under population growth, catch-up development, and globalization?
29. What are the ways of solving problems that result from the world population growth?
10 Formation of marks
A lecturer evaluates students’ work at seminars. The elements to be evaluated are reports, presentations, and participation in discussion. Marks are put into work sheet. Ten grade-accumulated mark for seminars is calculated before current and final tests - О current.
A lecturer evaluates individual work of student by the quality of reports. These marks are also put into work sheet. Accumulated mark is also put in the sheet. This mark is calculated before current or final test – О individual.
Accumulated mark is calculated according to the formula:
О accumulated = 0,5* Оcurrent + 0,5* Оindividual
A final mark is calculated according to the formula:
Оfinal = 0,67* Оaccumulated + 0,33·Оfinal test
11 Literature
11.1 Main sources
· Акимов население: взгляд в будущее. // М.: «Наука», 1992
· 2300 год: глобальные проблемы и Россия. М., Восточный университет, 2008 (Краткий вариант: Акимов население через 300 лет, Демоскоп Weekly № 371-372)
· Клупт регионов земли. СПб., Питер, 2008
· Россия и мир. Новая эпоха. 12 лет, которые могут все изменить. Отв. редактор . М., Русь-Олимп, 2008.
11.2 Additional sources
· Абрамова Африки в новой глобальной экономике. М., Институт Африки РАН, 2010
· Вишневский населения и общество. История, современность, взгляд в будущее М., Финансы и статистика, 1982. Раздел 1.4.2 (Демоскоп Weekly, Читальный зал)
- Вишневский революция // Вишневский демографические труды. В двух томах. Т. I. Демографическая теория и демографическая история. М., Наука, 2005. Разделы 3.1, 3.2 (Демоскоп Weekly, Читальный зал). Вишневский ли накормить весь мир? Демоскоп Weekly № 77-78 Вишневский ли «Юг» двинуться на север? Демоскоп Weekly № 39-4 География мирового развития. М., ИГ РАН, 2010 Демоскоп Weekly № 371-372. Мировой демографический барометр (Демографический прогноз ООН 2008 года)
· Доклад об осуществлении целей в области развития, сформулированных в Декларации тысячелетия. ООН, Нью-Йорк, 2010.
- Исламский фактор в истории и современности. М., «Восточная литература», 2011. Капица людей жило, живет и будет жить на земле.
Очерк теории роста человечества. М., 1999. Разделы 2.1-2.3; 8.1 (http://www. i-u. ru/biblio/archive/capica_skolko/)
· , Халтурина тенденции мирового развития. М., Книжный дом «ЛИБРОКОМ», 2009
- Что догоняет догоняющее развитие. Сборник статей. М., ИВ РАН, 2011.
· Human Development Report 2009. UNDP. N. Y. 2010.
- Lutz W. The future population of the world: what can we assume today/ Ed. and foreword by N. Keyfitz. Rev. ed. L.: IIASA and Earthscan press, 1996.
• World Energy Outlook 2009. Основные положения. Russian translation. IEA, 2009.
- World population to 2300. New York: UN, 2004. (ST/ESA/Ser. A/236)
Internet sites:
UN official site | http://www. un. org |
Demoscope Weekly | http://www. demoscope. ru |
United Nations Population Information Network (POPIN) | http://www. un. org/popin/ |
UN Population Fund (UNFPA) | http://www. unfpa. org/ |
Population Reference Bureau (USA) | http://www. prb. org/ |
12 Equpment
Projector for lectures and seminars are required. Copiers are required to make copies of texts, which would discussed at seminars.
