Dependent Variable: SYN1 | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Sample: 1 40 | ||||
Included observations: 32 | ||||
SYN1=C(1)+C(2)*NP1+C(3)*SLS1+C(4)*ROE1+C(5)*PE1+C(6)*DE1 | ||||
Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
C(1) | -0.751435 | 0.317621 | -2.365825 | 0.0257 |
C(2) | -0.045177 | 0.091668 | -0.492836 | 0.6263 |
C(3) | 1.289490 | 0.670309 | 1.923724 | 0.0654 |
C(4) | -0.004002 | 0.010638 | -0.376227 | 0.7098 |
C(5) | -0.130129 | 0.536117 | -0.242725 | 0.8101 |
C(6) | 0.000888 | 0.944893 | 0.000940 | 0.9993 |
R-squared | 0.133320 | Mean dependent var | -0.640273 | |
Adjusted R-squared | -0.033349 | S. D. dependent var | 1.520035 | |
S. E. of regression | 1.545172 | Akaike info criterion | 3.875508 | |
Sum squared resid | 62.07649 | Schwarz criterion | 4.150334 | |
F-statistic | 0.061623 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.80564 | |
Log likelihood | -56.00814 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.339497 | |
Приложение 3. Регрессионная модель (для прочих финансовых компаний через год после объявления о сделке) – только выручка
Dependent Variable: SYN1 | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Sample: 1 40 | ||||
Included observations: 38 | ||||
SYN1=C(1)+C(2)*SLS1 | ||||
Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
C(1) | -0.466677 | 0.286927 | -1.626464 | 0.1126 |
C(2) | 0.416551 | 0.597139 | 0.697579 | 0.4899 |
R-squared | 0.013337 | Mean dependent var | -0.480675 | |
Adjusted R-squared | -0.014070 | S. D. dependent var | 1.752126 | |
S. E. of regression | 1.764409 | Akaike info criterion | 4.024705 | |
Sum squared resid | 112.0730 | Schwarz criterion | 4.110893 | |
F-statistic | 3.817716 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.060092 | |
Log likelihood | -74.46939 | Durbin-Watson stat | 1.790411 | |
Приложение 4. Регрессионная модель (для прочих финансовых компаний через 2 года после объявления о сделке)
Dependent Variable: SYN2 | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Sample: 1 40 | ||||
Included observations: 31 | ||||
SYN2=C(1)+C(2)*NP2+C(3)*SLS2+C(4)*PE2+C(5)*DE2 | ||||
Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
C(1) | 0.261998 | 0.884663 | 0.296156 | 0.7695 |
C(2) | 0.242154 | 0.256893 | 0.942624 | 0.3546 |
C(3) | 0.152801 | 1.576566 | 0.096920 | 0.9235 |
C(4) | -1.211525 | 1.459671 | -0.829998 | 0.4141 |
C(5) | -1.868361 | 1.590207 | -1.174917 | 0.2507 |
R-squared | 0.132046 | Mean dependent var | 0.421720 | |
Adjusted R-squared | -0.001485 | S. D. dependent var | 4.772009 | |
S. E. of regression | 4.775552 | Akaike info criterion | 6.111586 | |
Sum squared resid | 592.9532 | Schwarz criterion | 6.342874 | |
F-statistic | 0.988876 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.431005 | |
Log likelihood | -89.72958 | Durbin-Watson stat | 1.679904 | |
Приложение 5. Регрессионная модель (для банков Европы через 3 года после объявления о сделке)
Dependent Variable: SYN3 | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Sample: 1 36 | ||||
Included observations: 27 | ||||
White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance | ||||
SYN3=C(1)+C(2)*NP3+C(3)*SLS3+C(4)*ROE3+C(5)*PE3+C(6)*DE3 | ||||
Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
C(1) | -40.54058 | 41.02464 | -0.988201 | 0.3343 |
C(2) | -12.31323 | 14.70350 | -0.837435 | 0.4118 |
C(3) | -29.70127 | 30.39397 | -0.977209 | 0.3396 |
C(4) | -0.460270 | 0.657360 | -0.700180 | 0.4915 |
C(5) | -35.10714 | 38.92108 | -0.902008 | 0.3773 |
C(6) | -40.83223 | 38.38160 | -1.063849 | 0.2995 |
R-squared | 0.207614 | Mean dependent var | 9.872533 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.018951 | S. D. dependent var | 51.42660 | |
S. E. of regression | 50.93697 | Akaike info criterion | 10.89219 | |
Sum squared resid | 54486.08 | Schwarz criterion | 11.18015 | |
F-statistic | 1.10045 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.389615 | |
Log likelihood | -141.0445 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.485022 | |
Приложение 6. Регрессионная модель (для прочих финансовых компаний через 3 года после объявления о сделке)
Dependent Variable: SYN3 | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Sample: 1 40 | ||||
Included observations: 29 | ||||
SYN3=C(1)+C(2)*NP3+C(3)*SLS3+C(4)*ROE3+C(5)*PE3+C(6)*DE3 | ||||
Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | |
C(1) | 1.205800 | 1.772311 | 0.680355 | 0.5031 |
C(2) | -0.076288 | 0.362314 | -0.210559 | 0.8351 |
C(3) | -0.879855 | 2.420857 | -0.363448 | 0.7196 |
C(4) | 0.029583 | 0.042090 | 0.702848 | 0.4892 |
C(5) | -4.305411 | 3.638364 | -1.183337 | 0.2488 |
C(6) | -2.961540 | 3.201393 | -0.925079 | 0.3645 |
R-squared | 0.106827 | Mean dependent var | 1.419850 | |
Adjusted R-squared | -0.087342 | S. D. dependent var | 7.912177 | |
S. E. of regression | 8.250476 | Akaike info criterion | 7.240410 | |
Sum squared resid | 1565.618 | Schwarz criterion | 7.523299 | |
F-statistic | 0.550175 | Prob (F-statistic) | 0.736584 | |
Log likelihood | -98.98595 | Durbin-Watson stat | 1.730729 | |
[1] В. Оценка стоимости компаний при слияниях и поглощениях: Учебное пособие. - СПб.: Изд-во СПбГУЭФ, 2009, с. 12
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