Оценка эффективности реализации региональных программ в сфере туризма (стр. 4 )

Эконометрическая модель с добавлением логарифма перед переменной Q

Dependent Variable: YNEW
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/18/13 Time: 17:33
Sample (adjusted): 2 71
Included observations: 68 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
YESNO	46.79176	21.56579	2.169721	0.0340
TEATR	-0.749105	2.550819	-0.293672	0.7700
LOG(Q)	18.58052	18.55224	1.001524	0.3206
NUMBER	-0.386858	0.327946	-1.179640	0.2428
MEROPR	0.004417	0.006100	0.724177	0.4718
HOTEL	-0.080007	0.303300	-0.263788	0.7928
INCOME	0.009739	0.002459	3.960173	0.0002
C	-195.5289	153.0858	-1.277250	0.2064
R-squared	0.252828	Mean dependent var	47.45588
Adjusted R-squared	0.165657	S. D. dependent var	93.75701
S. E. of regression	85.63985	Akaike info criterion	11.84831
Sum squared resid	440051.1	Schwarz criterion	12.10943
Log likelihood	-394.8425	Hannan-Quinn criter.	11.95177
F-statistic	2.900393	Durbin-Watson stat	2.589188
Prob(F-statistic)	0.011142

Таблица 2.7.

Линейная эконометрическая модель

Dependent Variable: YNEW
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/18/13 Time: 17:40
Sample (adjusted): 2 71
Included observations: 68 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
YESNO	45.50812	21.36355	2.130176	0.0373
TEATR	-0.879038	2.541623	-0.345857	0.7307
Q	0.006010	0.004721	1.273087	0.2079
NUMBER	-0.374582	0.324859	-1.153059	0.2535
MEROPR	0.003705	0.006039	0.613499	0.5419
HOTEL	-0.130246	0.308468	-0.422233	0.6744
INCOME	0.009923	0.002439	4.068057	0.0001
C	-67.12345	33.15462	-2.024558	0.0474
R-squared	0.260317	Mean dependent var	47.45588
Adjusted R-squared	0.174021	S. D. dependent var	93.75701
S. E. of regression	85.20953	Akaike info criterion	11.83823
Sum squared resid	435639.9	Schwarz criterion	12.09935
Log likelihood	-394.5000	Hannan-Quinn criter.	11.94170
F-statistic	3.016554	Durbin-Watson stat	2.538939
Prob(F-statistic)	0.008777

Таблица 2.8.

Эконометрическая модель с логарифмом перед переменными NUMBER и HOTEL

Dependent Variable: YNEW
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/18/13 Time: 17:42
Sample (adjusted): 2 71
Included observations: 68 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
YESNO	36.84456	20.54012	1.793786	0.0779
TEATR	-2.141637	1.191421	-1.797548	0.0773
Q	0.011570	0.005230	2.212286	0.0308
LOG(NUMBER)	-45.89800	18.27820	-2.511078	0.0147
MEROPR	-0.001841	0.004598	-0.400274	0.6904
LOG(HOTEL)	-1.794225	21.14258	-0.084863	0.9327
INCOME	0.009625	0.002364	4.070654	0.0001
C	79.42941	63.74349	1.246079	0.2176
R-squared	0.318441	Mean dependent var	47.45588
Adjusted R-squared	0.238926	S. D. dependent var	93.75701
S. E. of regression	81.79318	Akaike info criterion	11.75640
Sum squared resid	401407.5	Schwarz criterion	12.01751
Log likelihood	-391.7175	Hannan-Quinn criter.	11.85986
F-statistic	4.004787	Durbin-Watson stat	2.433632
Prob(F-statistic)	0.001177

Для того чтобы понять, какая модель наиболее репрезентативна и соответствует действительности, необходимо, как было ранее отмечено, оценить R2-adj и критерии Акайке и Шварца.