Export 1. Электроэнергетика
SEE = 56.26 RSQ = 0.9358 RHO = 0.14 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 58.04 RBSQ = 0.8930 DW = 1.71 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 5.50
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar
1 out1 0.012
2 outT -0.0032.012
3 dum94 215.2500 0
: Export 2 Нефтедобывающая промышленность
SEE = 745.99 RSQ = 0.9947 RHO = 0.16 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 749.64 RBSQ = 0.9867 DW = 1.69 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 0.61
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 intercept -47296.17187
2 oilpr 440.731
3 wgdp 5.25928
4 dum94 9003.53
: Export 3. Нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность
SEE = 743.77 RSQ = 0.9843 RHO = -0.57 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 574.54 RBSQ = 0.9608 DW = 3.14 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.21
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 oilpr -138.2416
2 wgdp 2.93399
3 dum96 4288.55
4 ex2 -0.371.396
: Export 4. Газовая промышленность
SEE = 1652.88 RSQ = 0.9651 RHO = -0.16 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 1597.59 RBSQ = 0.9418 DW = 2.33 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 1.49
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 oilpr[1] 437.3397
2 wgdp 2.98179
3 dum96 4283.5000 0
: Export 5 Угольная промышленность
SEE = 150.87 RSQ = 0.7803 RHO = -0.16 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 142.56 RBSQ = 0.4507 DW = 2.31 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.19
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar-
1 wgdp 0.0924 24752.15
2 out5 0.0968 60862
3 dum95 825.48
4 outT -0.001.193
: Export 7 Черная металлургия
SEE = 2292.74 RSQ = 0.9805 RHO = -0.77 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 1178.86 RBSQ = 0.9512 DW = 2.55 DoFree = 5 to 1997.000
MAPE = 5.78
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 intercept -129536.0251
2 wgdp 6.0118
3 oilpr 837.0837 15
4 profits7 1.7200 3794
: Export 8. Цветная металлургия
SEE = 2297.42 RSQ = 0.9858 RHO = -0.47 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 2005.42 RBSQ = 0.9645 DW = 2.93 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 3.95
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 intercept -143181.2270
2 wgdp 6.86104
3 oilpr 1283.68
4 profits8 0.9400 3205
: Export 9. Химическая промышленность
SEE = 3377.47 RSQ = 0.8604 RHO = 0.04 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 3395.51 RBSQ = 0.7673 DW = 1.92 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 16.34
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar -
1 wgdp 2.3950 24752.15
2 profits9 1.5156 3433
3 out17 -0.10.189
: Export 10. Машиностроение
SEE = 884.70 RSQ = 0.9960 RHO = -0.35 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 809.95 RBSQ = 0.9900 DW = 2.71 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 1.20
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1 -
1 intercept -97790.19250
2 wgdp 5.57164
3 profits10 1.9307
4 dum96 8130.38
: Export 11. ЛДЦБ
SEE = 1753.75 RSQ = 0.8342 RHO = 0.24 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 1803.85 RBSQ = 0.7237 DW = 1.51 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 12.55
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1 -
1 intercept -43684.72
2 wgdp 2.3366
3 dum95 4552.7100 0
:
Export 12 ПСМ
SEE = 42.22 RSQ = 0.8925 RHO = -0.31 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 36.14 RBSQ = 0.8209 DW = 2.62 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 11.34
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1
1 in_con12 -0.0025
2 wgdp 0.0296
3 dum95 -75.56
: Export 13. Легкая промышленность
SEE = 321.81 RSQ = 0.9691 RHO = -0.43 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 265.59 RBSQ = 0.9485 DW = 2.86 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 11.86
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1-
1 wgdp 0.795
2 out17 -0.042.370
3 profits13 0.5400 987
: Export 14. Пищевая промышленность
SEE = 240.06 RSQ = 0.9454 RHO = -0.24 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 233.29 RBSQ = 0.9091 DW = 2.47 DoFree = 6 to 1997.000
MAPE = 1.76
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1-
1 in_con14 -0.0135
2 wgdp 0.6373
3 dum97 -1023.91
: Export 15. Прочие отрасли промышленности
SEE = 272.50 RSQ = 0.5714 RHO = -0.61 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 203.62 RBSQ = 0.2857 DW = 3.22 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.25
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1-
1 out15 0.01
2 wgdp 0.3025
3 dum95 -396.70
: Export 17. Сельское хозяйство
SEE = 29.86 RSQ = 0.9004 RHO = 0.19 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 30.62 RBSQ = 0.8340 DW = 1.62 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 3.04
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1
1 wgdp 0.05
2 out14 -0.00.263
3 dum93 161.85
: Export 18. Транспорт
SEE = 60.58 RSQ = 0.8791 RHO = 0.04 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 60.84 RBSQ = 0.7986 DW = 1.91 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 0.73
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar1-
1 out18 0.0021
2 wgdp 0.18304
3 dum96 295.8400 0
: Export 21. Прочие виды деятельность сферы мат. производства
SEE = 27.21 RSQ = 0.8254 RHO = -0.13 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 26.55 RBSQ = 0.7090 DW = 2.27 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 0.99
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exar2-
1 out21 0.0031
2 wgdp 0.07346
23.1000 0
2. Экспорт в ближнее зарубежье
: Export 1. Электроэнергетика
SEE = 60.51 RSQ = 0.8627 RHO = -0.04 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 60.15 RBSQ = 0.6567 DW = 2.08 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 3.80
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr-
1 intercept -5162.40
2 out1 0.0485 258955
3 outT -0.004.346
4 dum95 210.0800 0
: Export 2 Нефтедобывающая промышленность
SEE = 2726.92 RSQ = 0.9892 RHO = 0.38 Obser = 16 from 1985.000
SEE+1 = 2538.59 RBSQ = 0.9871 DW = 1.23 DoFree = 13 to 1997.000
MAPE = 7.11
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr -
1 intercept -76974.7692
2 out2 0.75983
3 exar2 -0.51164
: Export 3 Нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность
SEE = 700.17 RSQ = 0.9416 RHO = -0.39 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 616.36 RBSQ = 0.9269 DW = 2.77 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 10.12
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr-
1 intercept 19609.847
2 exar3 -0.471970
: Export 4 Газовая промышленность
SEE = 4482.38 RSQ = 0.8123 RHO = -0.07 Obser = 12 from 1989.000
SEE+1 = 4464.26 RBSQ = 0.7855 DW = 2.13 DoFree = 10 to 2000.000
MAPE = 8.23
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr -
1 out4 0.12
2 imsrT 0.06979
: Export 5 Угольная промышленность
SEE = 262.34 RSQ = 0.9296 RHO = -0.27 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 239.65 RBSQ = 0.8827 DW = 2.55 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 13.95
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr-
1 out5 0.16
2 exar5 -1.47679
3 dum95 2093.85
: Export 6 Прочая топливная промышленность
SEE = 33.97 RSQ = 0.9055 RHO = -0.14 Obser = 12 from 1989.000
SEE+1 = 33.48 RBSQ = 0.8920 DW = 2.27 DoFree = 10 to 2000.000
MAPE = 55.07
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr
1 intercept 710.220
2 in_con6 -0.31152
: Export 7 Черная металлургия
SEE = 1346.82 RSQ = 0.9719 RHO = -0.60 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 982.44 RBSQ = 0.9663 DW = 3.19 DoFree = 8 to 2000.000
MAPE = 14.15
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr -
1 out7 0.106
2 exar7 -0.211484
: Export 8 Цветная металлургия
SEE = 3293.42 RSQ = 0.8523 RHO = -0.61 Obser = 11 from 1990.000
SEE+1 = 2610.63 RBSQ = 0.7932 DW = 3.21 DoFree = 8 to 2000.000
MAPE = 37.79
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr-
1 intercept -9690.75
2 out8 -0.0026 165661
3 out10 0.0300 630553
: Export 9 Химическая промышленность
SEE = 1845.01 RSQ = 0.9677 RHO = -0.21 Obser = 13 from 1988.000
SEE+1 = 1789.14 RBSQ = 0.9677 DW = 2.41 DoFree = 12 to 2000.000
MAPE = 7.52
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr -
1 out9 0.041
: Export 10 Машиностроение
SEE = 4238.40 RSQ = 0.9927 RHO = -0.48 Obser = 17 from 1987.000
SEE+1 = 3660.09 RBSQ = 0.9909 DW = 2.97 DoFree = 14 to 2000.000
MAPE = 6.93
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1 -
1 intercept -43316.41137
2 out10 0.15970
3 dum94 -13562.68
: Export 11 ЛДЦБ
SEE = 351.88 RSQ = 0.9822 RHO = 0.13 Obser = 11 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 362.19 RBSQ = 0.9822 DW = 1.73 DoFree = 9 to 2000.000
MAPE = 6.53
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1-
1 out11 0.031
: Export 12 ПСМ
SEE = 81.68 RSQ = 0.8738 RHO = -0.25 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 76.87 RBSQ = 0.7897 DW = 2.49 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 5.68
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1-
1 intercept 1450.6093 1.00
2 out12 0.009 162151
3 exar12 -1.406
: Export 13 Легкая промышленность
SEE = 1957.71 RSQ = 0.9626 RHO = 0.59 Obser = 18 from 1983.000
SEE+1 = 1595.73 RBSQ = 0.9597 DW = 0.81 DoFree = 16 to 2000.000
MAPE = 22.82
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1 -
1 out13 0.07
2 exar13 -0.7612
: Export 14 Пищевая промышленность
SEE = 904.21 RSQ = 0.9165 RHO = 0.40 Obser = 21 from 1980.000
SEE+1 = 829.68 RBSQ = 0.9113 DW = 1.20 DoFree = 19 to 2000.000
MAPE = 12.49
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1-
1 intercept -7285.911
2 out14 0.02957
: Export 15
SEE = 804.23 RSQ = 0.9527 RHO = -0.28 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 754.83 RBSQ = 0.9433 DW = 2.56 DoFree = 8 to 2000.000
MAPE = 46.09
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1-
1 intercept -13062.6221
2 out15 0.2176
: Export 17 Сельское хозяйство
SEE = 218.09 RSQ = 0.8380 RHO = -0.00 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 217.99 RBSQ = 0.7975 DW = 2.00 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 33.01
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 exsr1
1 intercept -11147.25 6
2 out17 0.021915
3. Импорт из дальнего зарубежья
: Import 3 Нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность
SEE = 1994.54 RSQ = 0.8304 RHO = 0.25 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 2009.66 RBSQ = 0.7880 DW = 1.50 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 29.38
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar-
1 inc_usd2 27.02
2 dum94 12249.93
: Import 7 Черная металлургия
SEE = 926.22 RSQ = 0.8858 RHO = 0.02 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 929.12 RBSQ = 0.7322 DW = 1.96 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 32.49
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar-
1 inc_usd2 16.76
2 dum94 -1724.37
: Import 8 Цветная металлургия
SEE = 28.92 RSQ = 0.9847 RHO = -0.25 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 25.67 RBSQ = 0.9618 DW = 2.50 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.04
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar-
1 intercept 1039.445
2 inc_usd2 0.1508 198
3 dum95 434.08
4 dum92 -337.341
: Import 9 Химическая промышленность
SEE = 658.65 RSQ = 0.9063 RHO = 0.25 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 645.17 RBSQ = 0.8829 DW = 1.50 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 6.30
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar-
1 inc_usd2 36.9521
2 dum92 7333.68
: Import 10 Машиностроение
SEE = 2705.95 RSQ = 0.9369 RHO = -0.49 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 2331.27 RBSQ = 0.8422 DW = 2.99 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 3.19
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1 -
1 inc_usd2 168.563
2 fdi_usd[1] 1307.2946 1
3 dum97 13022.07
4 out10 0.06943
: Import 11 ЛДЦБ
SEE = 335.48 RSQ = 0.7568 RHO = -0.29 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 295.35 RBSQ = 0.3919 DW = 2.59 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 24.36
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1-
1 intercept 640.1311 1.00
2 inc_usd2 2.8120 186
3 dum95 1196.5896 0
4 dum94 900.6800 0
: Import 12 ПСМ
SEE = 30.85 RSQ = 0.9683 RHO = -0.29 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 27.08 RBSQ = 0.9206 DW = 2.58 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 1.21
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1-
1 out12 -0.01435
2 out16 0.000956
3 man 2.28
4 dum95 163.12
: Import 13 Легкая промышленность
SEE = 5687.12 RSQ = 0.9373 RHO = -0.22 Obser = 6 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 5122.65 RBSQ = 0.9217 DW = 2.44 DoFree = 4 to 2000.000
MAPE = 4.66
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1 -
1 intercept 28590.405
2 inc_usd2 261.66
: Import 14 Пищевая промышленность
SEE = 13462.24 RSQ = 0.8918 RHO = 0.04 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 13561.95 RBSQ = 0.8648 DW = 1.92 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 16.58
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1 -
1 inc_usd2 561.50
2 dum96 -55004.02
: Import 15 Прочие отрасли промышленности
SEE = 2111.60 RSQ = 0.7728 RHO = 0.11 Obser = 12 from 1989.000
SEE+1 = 2116.71 RBSQ = 0.7728 DW = 1.78 DoFree = 11 to 2000.000
MAPE = 73.38
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1-
1 gdp_usd2 9.65
: Import 17 Сельское хозяйство
SEE = 1952.24 RSQ = 0.7875 RHO = 0.28 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 2012.80 RBSQ = 0.4688 DW = 1.44 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 17.40
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1 -
1 intercept 3561.201 1.00
2 inc_usd2 26.269 197
3 out17 0.008 393798
4 dum96 5297.5400 0
: Import 18 Транспорт
SEE = 539.00 RSQ = 0.9968 RHO = -0.10 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 535.89 RBSQ = 0.9936 DW = 2.19 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 4.35
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar1 -
1 intercept -21101.32314
2 vmoneyinc 12.0008
3 in_con18 0.075863
4 dum93 3329.83
: Import 21 Прочие виды деятельность сферы мат. производства
SEE = 145.90 RSQ = 0.9808 RHO = 0.39 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 140.03 RBSQ = 0.9617 DW = 1.21 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.05
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imar2-
1 intercept 3438.512
2 vmoneyinc 1.966
3 in_con21 0.03876
4. Уравнения импорта из ближнего зарубежья
: Import 1 Электроэнергетика
SEE = 194.85 RSQ = 0.7409 RHO = 0.55 Obser = 12 from 1989.000
SEE+1 = 168.57 RBSQ = 0.7039 DW = 0.89 DoFree = 10 to 2000.000
MAPE = 14.63
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 intercept 756.39
2 imsrT 0.0000 245272
: Import 2 Нефтедобывающая промышленность
SEE = 402.74 RSQ = 0.7377 RHO = 0.15 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 413.09 RBSQ = 0.6852 DW = 1.71 DoFree = 8 to 2000.000
MAPE = 7.90
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 intercept 2737.58
2 imsrT 0.0100 171649
: Import 3 Нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность
SEE = 1303.68 RSQ = 0.8455 RHO = 0.40 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 1231.01 RBSQ = 0.7682 DW = 1.21 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 38.30
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 intercept -5242.31
2 imsrT 0.05977
3 dum94 3518.4100 0
: Import 4 Газовая промышленность
SEE = 377.13 RSQ = 0.9805 RHO = -0.12 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 367.70 RBSQ = 0.9708 DW = 2.25 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 12.90
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 intercept -22713.2351
2 in_con4 0.2770
3 imsrT 0.571
: Import 5 Угольная промышленность
SEE = 279.69 RSQ = 0.9764 RHO = -0.21 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 262.68 RBSQ = 0.9717 DW = 2.42 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 7.47
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 pce5 0.768
2 exsr2 0.0860
: Import 7 Черная металлургия
SEE = 1622.63 RSQ = 0.9776 RHO = -0.17 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 1598.98 RBSQ = 0.9552 DW = 2.34 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 9.71
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr -
1 intercept -7665.114
2 out10 0.03769
3 vmoneyinc 17.03
4 dum97 -4880.00
: Import 8 Цветная металлургия
SEE = 433.69 RSQ = 0.9841 RHO = 0.26 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 448.21 RBSQ = 0.9809 DW = 1.49 DoFree = 8 to 2000.000
MAPE = 4.56
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr-
1 out10 0.012
2 vmoneyinc 7.40
: Import 9 Химическая промышленность
SEE = 316.65 RSQ = 0.9976 RHO = 0.26 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 325.69 RBSQ = 0.9953 DW = 1.47 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 1.25
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr -
1 intercept 4759.8521
2 deltaout9 -0.0516.656
3 vmoneyinc 37.5725
4 dum94 -4528.121
: Import 10 Машиностроение
SEE = 4493.10 RSQ = 0.9844 RHO = 0.02 Obser = 14 from 1987.000
SEE+1 = 4495.15 RBSQ = 0.9827 DW = 1.95 DoFree = 13 to 2000.000
MAPE = 8.63
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1 -
1 intercept -30676.8864
2 in_con10 0.11992
: Import 11 ЛДЦБ
SEE = 734.22 RSQ = 0.7887 RHO = -0.30 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 694.58 RBSQ = 0.5775 DW = 2.61 DoFree = 6 to 1997.000
MAPE = 29.22
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1-
1 intercept 812.553 1.00
2 out11 -0.03.501
3 imsrT 0.0408 171649
4 dum97 2389.6700 0
: Import 12 ПСМ
SEE = 123.81 RSQ = 0.9881 RHO = -0.25 Obser = 13 from 1988.000
SEE+1 = 117.55 RBSQ = 0.9847 DW = 2.51 DoFree = 10 to 2000.000
MAPE = 7.71
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1-
1 out12 -0.0223
2 out16 0.00621
3 dum92 855.8900 0
: Import 13 Легкая промышленность
SEE = 905.43 RSQ = 0.8954 RHO = -0.08 Obser = 9 from 1992.000
SEE+1 = 896.03 RBSQ = 0.7385 DW = 2.15 DoFree = 5 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.56
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1 -
1 intercept 11163.1156 1.00
2 out13 -0.077.698
3 imsrT 0.14199
4 dum93 5066.55
: Import 14 Пищевая промышленность
SEE = 1984.54 RSQ = 0.9412 RHO = 0.20 Obser = 15 from 1986.000
SEE+1 = 1966.82 RBSQ = 0.9077 DW = 1.59 DoFree = 10 to 2000.000
MAPE = 3.68
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1 -
1 in_con14 0.091
2 out17 -0.051.127
3 rinc 20.7141 107
4 dum94 -11430.42
5 dum96 16035.97
: Import 15 Прочие отрасли промышленности
SEE = 107.63 RSQ = 0.9961 RHO = -0.30 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 102.38 RBSQ = 0.9942 DW = 2.60 DoFree = 7 to 2000.000
MAPE = 2.26
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1-
1 intercept -2529.02257
2 in_con15 0.07733
3 vmoneyinc 3.56
: Import 17 Сельское хозяйство
SEE = 699.01 RSQ = 0.8687 RHO = -0.49 Obser = 10 from 1991.000
SEE+1 = 606.20 RBSQ = 0.7375 DW = 2.98 DoFree = 6 to 2000.000
MAPE = 8.08
Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta
0 imsr1-
1 intercept 15238.6262 1.00
2 out17 -0.03.461
3 imsrT 0.0301 171649
4 dum94 -2342.63
Приложение 2
Сценарные условия функционирования экономики на период до 2010 года. Сценарий №1
прогноз | |||||||||||
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
отчет | отчет | оценка | |||||||||
СЦЕНАРНЫЕ УСЛОВИЯ | |||||||||||
Внешние | |||||||||||
Цены на нефть Urals (мировые), долл./барр. | 26.6 | 23 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 19 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
Цены на газ (контрактные), долл./тыс. куб. М | 85.9 | 98.2 | 84 | 78.5 | 77.9 | 84 | 85.8 | 87.8 | 86.9 | 87.8 | 90.5 |
в т. ч. в дальнее зарубежье | 97.8 | 120.04 | 97.3 | 87.6 | 86 | 92.8 | 94.8 | 97 | 96 | 97 | 100 |
в СНГ | 59.2 | 39.4 | 48.3 | 53.1 | 55.2 | 57.7 | 62 | 64 | 70 | 73 | 76 |
Экспорт нефти, млн. тонн | 144.5 | 162.1 | 176.8 | 183 | 188 | 196 | 197.0 | 198.9 | 199.9 | 201.7 | 202.6 |
Экспорт нефтепродуктов, млн. тонн | 62.7 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 70.2 | 71.0 | 71.5 | 71.9 | 72.4 | 72.9 |
Экспорт природного газа, млрд. куб. м | 193.9 | 180.9 | 185 | 188 | 190 | 199 | 200.2 | 201.0 | 210.2 | 210.2 | 210.3 |
Темпы роста мировой экономики, в % | 3.8 | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
Внутренние | |||||||||||
Численность населения, млн. чел. | 145.7 | 144.2 | 144.2 | 144.2 | 142.7 | 142.7 | 141.3 | 141.3 | 139.8 | 139.8 | 138.3 |
Численность рабочей силы, млн. чел. | 72.99 | 73.0 | 75.2 | 75.9 | 76.6 | 76.6 | 76.6 | 75.9 | 75.2 | 73.7 | 73.0 |
Численность пенсионеров, млн. чел. | 38.6 | 38.9 | 38.6 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 37.8 | 38.6 |
Индексы изменения: | |||||||||||
численности населения | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.94 |
рабочей силы | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.0 |
пенсионеров | 1.01 | 1,02 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.01 |
Иностранные инвестиции, млрд. долл. США | 4.4 | 4 | 6 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Изменения некоторых параметров экономической политики. Сценарий №1
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